Individual Annuity Demand Under Aggregate Mortality Risk
研究了总体死亡率风险如何影响个人购买年金的决策，发现客观因素（如保险公司对死亡率变化的脆弱性）决定需求方向，主观偏好仅影响反应强度，对个人、保险公司和监管者均有参考价值。
Aggregate mortality risk—the risk that the mortality trend in a population changes in a nondeterministic way—and its implications for corporate decisions has recently been the subject of lively scientific discussion. We show that aggregate mortality risk is also a key determinant for individual annuitization decisions. Aggregate mortality risk appears to be a risk very difficult to transfer for individuals. Whether its existence leads to a higher or lower annuity demand depends on objective factors (e.g., insurers’ vulnerability to aggregate mortality changes). Subjective factors (i.e., individuals’ preferences) determine only the intensity of the annuity demand reaction to aggregate mortality risk. Our results are of significant importance not only for financial planning approaches of individual annuity buyers but also for strategic decisions in insurance companies and for solvency regulators. Furthermore, consideration of aggregate mortality risk may alleviate, but also intensify, the annuity puzzle.