A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940
构建了1884-1940年美国工业生产的月度新指数，通过排除间接代理变量、使用一致序列且不做临时调整，发现该指数年内波动更大、季节性波动较小，且周期转折点与现有指数略有差异。
The article derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884 to 1940. This index improves upon existing measures of industrial production by excluding indirect proxies for industrial activity, using only component series that are consistent over time, and not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively unimportant seasonal fluctuations, and has cyclical turning points that are grossly similar to but subtly different from existing series.