Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences
记录了欧洲央行和纽约联邦储备银行在全球金融危机期间的宏观经济预测实践，分析了点预测表现及将金融市场数据纳入预测过程的方法贡献。
This article documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not exclusively focus on point forecast performance. It also examines methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.