Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle
构建一个小型结构模型，证明实际货币余额同时进入前瞻性IS曲线和菲利普斯曲线，并需调整货币需求变化才能准确衡量货币对产出和通胀的动态影响，但估计结果显示货币作用很小。
A small, structural model of the monetary business cycle implies that real money balances enter into a correctly-specified, forward-looking IS curve if and only if they enter into a correctly-specified, forward-looking Phillips curve. The model also implies that empirical measures of real balances must be adjusted for shifts in money demand to accurately isolate and quantify the dynamic effects of money on output and inflation. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model's parameters take both of these considerations into account, but still suggest that money plays a minimal role in the monetary business cycle.