Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums
在简单两人游戏中，比较非激励性内省与五种揭示偏好机制（真相血清）在信念诱导中的表现，测量可加性、对自身行为的预测力和准确性。
We pit non-incentivised introspection against five revealed preference mechanisms (‘truth serums’) in the elicitation of beliefs in a simple two-player game. We measure the additivity, the predictive power for own behaviour and the accuracy of each method. Beliefs from incentivised methods are better predictors of participants' own behaviour compared to introspection. However, introspection performs equally well as the truth serums in terms of accuracy and additivity. We also find that correction for risk aversion improves the additivity of scoring rule belief reports.