Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence
认为国际贸易对不同国家人力资本需求的影响差异，是决定全球人口与收入分布的关键因素。发达国家将贸易收益投入教育，而欠发达国家则更多用于人口增长。
This research argues that the differential effect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a significant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channeled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive effects on fertility and negative effects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies.