The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
提出适应性市场假说，用进化论中的竞争、适应和自然选择原则调和市场效率与行为金融学的矛盾，认为行为偏差实为个体在变化环境中通过简单启发式适应的结果，对投资组合管理有具体启示。
One of the most influential ideas in the past 30 years is the efficient markets hypothesis, the idea that market prices incorporate all information rationally and instantaneously. The emerging discipline of behavioral economics and finance has challenged the EMH, arguing that markets are not rational, but rather driven by fear and greed. Research in the cognitive neurosciences suggests these two perspectives are opposite sides of the same coin. An adaptive markets hypothesis that reconciles market efficiency with behavioral alternatives applies the principles of evolution?competition, adaptation, and natural selection?to financial interactions. Extending Simon9s notion of ?satisficing? with evolutionary dynamics, the author argues that much of what behaviorists cite as counter-examples to economic rationality?loss aversion, overconfidence, overreaction, mental accounting, and other behavioral biases?is in fact consistent with an evolutionary model of individual adaptation to a changing environment via simple heuristics. The adaptive markets hypothesis offers a number of surprisingly concrete implications for portfolio management.