Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices
研究出口价格冲击对冲突的影响，发现价格冲击不引发新冲突，但价格上涨会缩短和减轻现有战争，支持收入提升增强平叛能力和减少个人战斗动机的理论。
Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counter-insurgency capacity and reduce individual incentives to fight in existing conflicts. Conflict onset and continuation follow different processes. Ignoring this time dependence generates mistaken conclusions about income and instability.