Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings
利用健康与退休研究样本中近整个职业生涯的社会保障收入记录，发现当前收入与终身收入的关系偏离教科书模型，且这种偏离随生命周期系统变化，有助于更准确地纠正使用当前收入替代终身收入时的变量误差偏差。
Researchers in a variety of important economic literatures have assumed that current income variables as proxies for lifetime income variables follow the textbook errors-in-variables model.In an analysis of Social Security records containing nearly career-long earnings histories for the Health and Retirement Study sample, we find that the relationship between current and lifetime earnings departs substantially from the textbook model in ways that vary systematically over the life cycle.Our results can enable more appropriate analysis of and correction for errors-in-variables bias in a wide range of research that uses current earnings to proxy for lifetime earnings.