The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance
研究发现长期股权溢价与人均GDP增长及组合保险一致，通过供给侧增长模型解释了1926-2001年美国历史平均股权溢价，并预测未来溢价将缩小。
Abstract We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.