Why New Issues and High-Accrual Firms Underperform: The Role of Analysts’ Credulity
研究发现分析师预测误差可由历史应计利润预测，且对应计利润管理越轻信，越导致新股发行后长期表现不佳，对非发行公司也适用，表明分析师轻信加剧市场低效。
We find that analysts' forecast errors are predicted by past accounting accruals (adjustments to cash flows to obtain reported earnings) among both equity issuers and nonissuers. Analysts are more optimistic for the subsequent four years for issuers reporting higher issue-year accruals. The predictive power is greater for discretionary accruals than nondiscretionary accruals and is independent of the presence of an underwriting affiliation. Predicted forecast errors from accruals significantly explain the long-term underperformance of new issuers. The predictability of forecast errors among nonissuers suggests that analysts' credulity about accruals management more generally contributes to market inefficiency.