Can Managers Successfully Time the Maturity Structure of Their Debt Issues?
为管理者看似能成功把握债务发行期限时机的能力提供了理性解释，指出1980年代初债券超额收益的结构性断裂导致了虚假相关性，并证明管理者实际上无法成功把握债务市场时机。
ABSTRACT This paper provides a rational explanation for the apparent ability of managers to successfully time the maturity of their debt issues. We show that a structural break in excess bond returns during the early 1980s generates a spurious correlation between the fraction of long‐term debt in total debt issues and future excess bond returns. Contrary to Baker, Taliaferro, and Wurgler (2006) , we show that the presence of structural breaks can lead to nonsense regressions, whether or not there is any small sample bias. Tests using firm‐level data further confirm that managers are unable to time the debt market successfully.