An investigation of time preferences, life expectancy, and annuity versus lump sum choices: Can smoking harm long-term saving decisions?
利用以色列养老金保险定价不区分健康状况的特点，研究发现吸烟者并未如预期更倾向一次性支付，并探讨了预期寿命错觉、自我控制和有利选择等解释。
We exploit the fact that Israeli pension insurance policies do not take health conditions or smoking status into account in annuity pricing to investigate the potential effect of being a smoker on retirement payout choices. Contrary to the idea that smokers have higher discount rates (and thus should prefer the lump sum option), and even though the insurance pricing mechanism means that smokers would be offered the same annuity as nonsmokers (all else equal), we find that smokers do not prefer the lump sum option. We offer and test several potential explanations for our findings: illusions regarding life expectancy, self-control, and advantageous selection.