Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap
研究了1990年代中期后美联储工作人员对产出缺口的实时估计修正特性，发现其比早期研究更可靠，且基于实时估计的通胀预测表现并未劣于基于最终估计的预测。
We consider the revision properties of Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the output gap after the mid-1990s and examine the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve's output gap is more reliably estimated in real time than previous studies have documented for earlier periods and alternative estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real-time rather than on final estimates of the output gap.