Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule
研究发现，在控制全球活动冲击并允许财政政策和冲击波动率随时间变化后，资源丰富国家财政政策对大宗商品价格变化的顺周期性并未减弱，即使这些国家采用了财政规则。
Summary Recent studies offer evidence of reduced fiscal procyclicality to commodity price changes in resource‐rich countries—a feature commonly attributed to the adoption of fiscal policy rules. We revisit this issue and find that, by controlling for global activity shocks while allowing for time‐varying changes in both fiscal policy and the volatility of shocks, this finding does not hold. To show this we develop a time‐varying dynamic factor model, allowing for a multiple of shocks, stochastic volatility and time‐varying parameters, and estimate it on data for Norway, whose handling of resource wealth is often cited as exemplary.