The British Beveridge curve: A tale of ten regions
利用英国县级数据估计总体和地区贝弗里奇曲线的移动时机与幅度,发现移动与商业周期同步,而非滞后效应或区域错配变化,说明该曲线不适合区分结构变化与周期影响。
Recent work has suggested the possibility that the Beveridge curve can shift over the business cycle. This is in contrast with a large body of literature claiming that Beveridge curves have shifted due to structural changes alone. To test these claims, we use county-level data to estimate the timing and magnitude of shifts in aggregate and regional British Beveridge curves. We find that these shifts coincide with the business cycle rather than with hysteresis effects or with changes in regional mismatch. This implies that the Beveridge curve is a flawed device for separating the effects of structural changes from those of the business cycle.