Unemployment insurance and subsequent job duration: job matching versus unobserved heterogeneity
使用多状态持续时间模型，探究失业保险金期限与失业时长、后续工作时长的关系，发现失业与工作时长的负相关主要由未观测异质性解释，匹配效应较弱。
Abstract The relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefit duration, unemployment duration and subsequent job duration is investigated using a multi‐state duration model with state specific unobserved heterogeneity. I examine two potential explanations for the negative correlation between unemployment and job spell durations; UI benefits increase job matching quality (the ‘Matching’ effect) versus unobserved heterogeneity (‘Adverse Selection’). The Matching effect is found to be weak. Although new jobs accepted within 5 weeks of benefit termination seem to have a higher dissolution rate, the negative correlation between unemployment and job duration is mostly explained by unobserved heterogeneity. Various simulations indicate that increasing the maximum benefit duration by one week will raise expected unemployment duration by 1.0 to 1.5 days but will raise expected job duration by 0.5 to 0.8 day only. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.