The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers
研究发现政府支出乘数取决于人口年龄结构，利用美国各州军事支出和出生率数据，本地财政乘数平均为1.5，且随年轻人占比上升而增大；模型解释87%的乘数与人口结构关系，并显示1980-2015年间美国人口老龄化导致国家财政乘数下降38%。
We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1–1.9 in the interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 percent of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the US population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38 percent drop in national government spending multipliers.