The systematic pricing of market sentiment shock
研究发现市场情绪冲击会引发风险资产的需求冲击,形成系统性风险;在套利定价理论框架下,该冲击对股票收益有1%的定价能力,并显著降低了隐含风险厌恶系数。
We show that market sentiment shocks create demand shocks for risky assets and a systematic risk for assets. We measure a market sentiment shock as the unexpected portion of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index’s growth. This shock prices stock returns in arbitrage pricing theory framework at 1% after controlling for market, size, value, momentum, and liquidity risk factors. Its premium lowered the implied risk aversion by 97.9% to 11.46 between 1978 and 2009 in our sentiment consumption-based capital-asset-pricing model. Merton’s [1973. “An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model.” Econometrica 41: 867–887]. intertemporal capital-asset-pricing model reconfirms our finding that this market sentiment shock is a systematic risk factor that provides investment opportunities.