Theory and Evidence on the Resolution of Financial Distress
分析了一个陷入财务困境的业主管理项目，模型显示借款人违约是对预期重组或止赎的内生反应，贷款人的决策取决于项目价值与行业流动性的相互作用，实证分析支持了模型预测。
We analyze a financially distressed owner-managed project. The main results of the model are: (1) borrower default is an endogenous response to the anticipated restructuring--foreclosure outcome; (2) the lender's restructuring--foreclosure decision depends critically on the interaction between project value and industry liquidity; and (3) the lender waits for the industry to recapitalize before selling assets obtained through foreclosure. Empirical analysis of a large sample of defaulted commercial real estate loans supports many of the model predictions, including restructuring--foreclosure outcomes that are consistent with endogenous borrower default and firesale discounts that vary depending on industry market conditions at the time of foreclosure. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.