Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008
基于14个国家1870-2008年的历史数据，研究信贷、货币与宏观经济指标的长期行为，发现信贷增长是金融危机的重要预测指标，且危机后产出损失依然巨大。
The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril.