Politicians’ Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery
利用西班牙圣诞彩票中奖的地理集中性，研究发现外生的经济好运（中彩票）使选民更倾向于支持现任政客，可能是因为幸福感提升或偏好维持现状。
Incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good. In this paper we explore the source of this correlation, exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the Spanish Christmas Lottery. Because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet, winners tend to be geographically clustered. This allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior. We find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provinces. The evidence is consistent with a temporary increase in happiness making voters more lenient toward the incumbent, or with a stronger preference for the status quo.