Why Does Aggregate Earnings Growth Reflect Information about Future Inflation?
研究了总盈利增长与未来通胀的关系，提出两种解释：企业投资变化和消费财富效应，发现盈利增长可预测投资和生产者价格指数变化，但消费渠道证据较弱。
ABSTRACT We propose two explanations for the previously documented relation between aggregate earnings growth and future inflation: one based on firms changing their investment in response to earnings growth, and the other based on consumers varying their consumption in response to wealth effects of profitability growth. As the supply of goods and services is relatively inelastic in the short run, our arguments imply that changes to near-term demand for investment (consumption) will affect the prices of investment (consumption) goods and services. Consistent with the investment-based argument, we find that profitability changes predict investment and Producer Price Index (PPI) shifts in subsequent quarters. Our analyses also reveal that aggregate earnings growth predicts future investment and PPI forecast errors. We find, at best, weak evidence for the consumption-based link between aggregate earnings growth and future inflation.