How Investors Interpret Past Fund Returns
发现基金历史回报与资金流入之间的凸关系源于基金激励：表现差时基金会更换策略，导致历史回报对未来表现的预测力下降，从而资金流入对差回报不敏感。实证支持这一机制。
Abstract The literature documents a convex relation between past returns and fund flows of mutual funds. We show this to be consistent with fund incentives, because funds discard exactly those strategies which underperform. Past returns tell less about the future performance of funds which discard, so flows are less sensitive to them when they are poor. Our model predicts that strategy changes only occur after bad performance, and that bad performers who change strategy have dollar flow and future performance that are less sensitive to current performance than those that do not. Empirical tests support both predictions.