EU Enlargement and Immigration
本文评估欧盟扩大对东西移民的影响，认为未来经济、社会和政治变量的预期对当前移民至关重要，拒绝入盟会因恐惧未来限制而增加当前移民，而入盟缩小收入差距会降低移民动机，因此东扩不必然导致大规模东西移民。
Abstract This article assesses the consequences of EU enlargement for east–west migration. It is argued that expectations on future economic, social and political variables are crucial for immediate immigration. Specifically, if EU membership is refused, fear of future restrictions on immigration will lead to increased current migration. Moreover, EU accession is likely to reduce income gaps between the accession countries and the current Member States reducing the incentives to emigrate. We conclude that granting EU accession to eastern European countries will not necessarily induce massive east–west migration flows.