Evaluating the impact of innovation incentives: evidence from an unexpected shortage of funds
利用意大利应用创新开发补贴项目因公共资金意外短缺导致的融资不连续性，通过回归不连续设计比较短缺前后申请的企业，发现该补贴未能有效刺激创新投资。
To evaluate the effect of an R&D subsidy, one needs to know what the subsidized firms would have done without the incentive. This article studies an Italian program of subsidies for the applied development of innovations, exploiting a discontinuity in program financing due to an unexpected shortage of public money. To identify the effect of the program, the study implements a regression discontinuity design and compares firms that applied before and after the shortage occurred. The results indicate that the program was not effective in stimulating innovative investment.