Trade Network Centrality and Currency Risk Premia
研究发现,在全球贸易网络中处于中心位置的国家,其利率和货币风险溢价更低。作者通过一般均衡模型解释,中心国家消费增长更易受全球冲击影响,使其货币在危机时升值,从而降低风险溢价。
ABSTRACT I uncover an economic source of exposure to global risk that drives international asset prices. Countries that are more central in the global trade network have lower interest rates and currency risk premia. To explain these findings, I present a general equilibrium model in which central countries' consumption growth is more exposed to global consumption growth shocks. This causes the currencies of central countries to appreciate in bad times, resulting in lower interest rates and currency risk premia. Empirically, central countries' consumption growth covaries more with world consumption growth, further validating the proposed mechanism.