Do Better Prisons Reduce Recidivism? Evidence from a Prison Construction Program
利用哥伦比亚囚犯准随机分配到不同质量监狱的数据，发现分配到更新、更不拥挤、服务更好的监狱的囚犯，一年内再次入狱的概率降低36%，并探讨了犯罪资本、康复项目和负面经历等机制。
Abstract I study the effects of prison quality on recidivism using individual-level data from Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I leverage the quasi-random assignment of inmates to newer, less crowded, and higher service prisons. For inmates assigned to newer facilities, I find that the probability of returning to prison within one year is 36% lower. Criminal capital, access to rehabilitation programs, and negative prison experiences, which could trigger changes in intrinsic preferences over illegal occupations, seem to be important mechanisms. The program led to substantial welfare gains, even when assuming a low social cost per crime.