Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations
发现股票价格与全要素生产率（TFP）的联合动态表明，商业周期主要由一种短期不影响生产率、长期才影响生产率的冲击驱动，这种冲击可解释约50%的经济波动，且可能代表关于未来技术机会的新闻。
We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run – and therefore does not look like a standard technology shock – but affects productivity with substantial delay – and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One structural interpretation for this shock is that it represents news about future technological opportunities which is first captured in stock prices. This shock causes a boom in consumption, investment, and hours worked that precedes productivity growth by a few years, and explains about 50 percent of business cycle fluctuations.