Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness
研究了人口老龄化如何削弱货币政策对失业和通胀的影响，利用美国、加拿大、日本、英国和德国的数据证实了这一效应，并量化了人口变化的贡献。
Abstract There is mounting evidence that in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in unemployment—compared with the past. We examine another aspect that could explain this empirical finding, namely the demographic shift to an older society. The paper first clarifies potential transmission channels that could explain why monetary policy effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. Then, using Bayesian estimation techniques for the USA, Canada, Japan, the UK and Germany, a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over time with regard to unemployment and inflation is confirmed. After proving the existence of a panel co‐integration relationship between ageing and a weakening of monetary policy, the study uses dynamic panel ordinary least squares techniques to attribute this weakening of monetary policy effectiveness to demographic changes. The paper concludes with policy implications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.