Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Estimate the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy
利用德国利率作为工具变量，估计了利率对几个欧洲国家季度实际产出的影响，发现最小二乘估计存在前瞻性偏差，且估计结果可视为货币政策对实际产出影响的下界。
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority makes it difficult to estimate the effect of monetary policy interventions on output. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on quarterly real output for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. These estimates confirm a strong forward-looking bias in least squares estimates that persists even conditional on standard controls for the history of the system. Due to the potential for correlation of output shocks across countries, we interpret our estimates as lower bounds for the effect of monetary policy on real output. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.