The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
利用2000年9月至2005年1月巴以冲突的每日死亡人数数据，检验暴力动态，发现巴勒斯坦暴力格兰杰导致以色列暴力，但反之不成立，不支持可预测的“以牙还牙”暴力循环。
This paper examines the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during the Second Intifada. Using data on the daily number of fatalities between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of Granger causality from Palestinian to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent using either the incidence or level of fatalities and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find no evidence that the Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in a predictable “tit-for-tat” cycle of violence.