Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility
研究货币政策通过抵押贷款利率传导影响家庭生育决策，利用英美大衰退期间利率大幅下降和家庭利率调整资格差异，发现政策利率每降1个百分点使合格家庭生育率提高3%。
Abstract This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households’ eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply.