Capital Budgeting versus Market Timing: An Evaluation Using Demographics
利用人口结构变化引起的需求变动，检验了资本预算和市场择时理论：行业在近期需求上升时增发股票，在远期需求上升时因低估而减少发行。
ABSTRACT Using demand shifts induced by demographics, we evaluate capital budgeting and market timing. Capital budgeting implies that industries anticipating positive demand shifts in the near future should issue more equity to finance greater capacity. To the extent that demand shifts in the distant future are not incorporated into equity prices, market timing implies that industries anticipating positive shifts in the distant future should issue less equity due to undervaluation. The evidence supports both theories: new listings and equity issuance respond positively to demand shifts during the next 5 years and negatively to demand shifts further in the future.