Analysts’ Recommendation Revisions and Subsequent Earnings Surprises
研究公平披露法规实施前后分析师推荐修正对盈利惊喜的预测能力变化，发现法规后预测价值显著下降，投资者利用推荐获利的异常收益降低约70%。
This study examines the extent to which analyst recommendations were useful in identifying earnings surprises during the pre- and post-Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) periods. A comparative analysis of the association between recommendation revisions and subsequent earnings surprises suggests a significant decline in the predictive value of analysts’ recommendations after Regulation FD took effect. Recommendation revisions are roughly 55% less useful in predicting earnings surprises in the post-Regulation FD period. Furthermore, the average abnormal return earned by investors following analysts’ advice to exploit earnings surprises is approximately 70% lower in the post-Regulation FD period. Overall, this article’s findings are consistent with Regulation FD having considerably reduced analysts’ comparative advantage in identifying earnings surprises.