Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations
通过模型和实证检验，发现美联储沟通通胀目标（如2012年宣布2%目标）锚定了通胀预期，削弱了失业与通胀的关系，使菲利普斯曲线变平，且美国在新冠疫情期间预期仍锚定，而日本则无此证据。
Abstract In a macroeconomic model with drifting long-run inflation expectations, the anchoring of inflation expectations manifests in two testable predictions. First, expectations about inflation far in the future should no longer respond to news about current inflation. Second, better anchored inflation expectations weaken the relationship between unemployment and inflation, flattening the reduced-form Phillips curve. We evaluate both predictions and find that the Federal Reserve’s communication of a numerical inflation objective, first through its Summary of Economic Projections and later through the announcement of a 2% target in 2012, better anchored inflation expectations. Moreover, inflation expectations in the United States have remained anchored amid the volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, similar analysis reveals no evidence of anchoring in Japan despite the adoption of a numerical inflation target.