100 Years of Commercial Real Estate Prices in Manhattan
基于1899至1999年间曼哈顿86笔办公楼重复销售数据，发现经通胀调整后商业地产价值在百年间下降了30%，且每十年内实际价格波动幅度达20%-50%。
This article is able to put together a database of 86 repeat‐sales transactions for office properties in lower and midtown Manhattan spanning the years from 1899 to 1999. Using this very limited database, decade‐interval changes in real property prices are estimated—with varying degrees of precision. Our conclusions are two fold. First, adjusting for inflation, commercial office property values were 30% lower in 1999 than they were in 1899. Second, within any decade values often rise and fall by 20–50% in real terms. With these results, the long‐term historic return to New York commercial property must mostly comprise yield with capital gains limited to general inflation. Other historical studies consistent with this conclusion are reviewed.