Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration
提出一个衡量国家增长机会的外生指标，通过本地行业结构与全球市盈率交互得到，发现该指标能预测实际GDP和投资变化，且资本账户开放程度比金融发展等因素更能促进增长机会转化为实际增长。
ABSTRACT We propose an exogenous measure of a country's growth opportunities by interacting the country's local industry mix with global price to earnings ( PE ) ratios. We find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real GDP and investment in a large panel of countries. This relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts, equity markets, and banking systems. We also find that financial development, external finance dependence, and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness. Finally, we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation by linking local and global PE ratios to relative economic growth.