Revisiting the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Unemployment: A Measurement‐Error‐Corrected Regression Discontinuity Approach
指出基于边界识别分析失业保险延长存在两种偏差，使用测量误差校正的断点回归发现效果远小于以往研究，并揭示了跨边界工作模式的溢出效应。
This study documents two potential biases in recent analyses of UI benefit extensions using boundary-based identification: bias from using county-level aggregates and bias from across-border policy spillovers. To examine the first bias, the analysis uses a regression discontinuity approach that accounts for measurement error in county-level aggregates. These results suggest much smaller effects than previous studies, casting doubt on the applicability of border-based designs. The analysis then shows substantial spillover effects of UI benefit duration on across-border work patterns, consistent with increased tightness in high-benefit states and providing evidence against a dominant vacancy reduction response to UI extensions.