This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance during the Recent Financial Crisis
研究发现，银行在1998年危机中的股票回报表现能预测其在近期金融危机中的表现和倒闭概率，且效应显著，支持银行风险文化或商业模式持续性的解释。
ABSTRACT Are some banks prone to perform poorly during crises? If yes, why? In this paper, we show that a bank's stock return performance during the 1998 crisis predicts its stock return performance and probability of failure during the recent financial crisis. This effect is economically large. Our findings are consistent with persistence in a bank's risk culture and/or aspects of its business model that make its performance sensitive to crises. Banks that relied more on short‐term funding, had more leverage, and grew more are more likely to be banks that performed poorly in both crises.