Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect
证明临时汇率波动会对贸易产生持久影响，当市场进入成本为沉没成本时，足够大的汇率冲击会改变国内市场结构并引发滞后效应，并以1980年代美元高估导致美国进口价格滞后为例提供实证证据。
This paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent (hysteretic) effects on trade. Specifically, when market-entry costs are sunk, sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis. This simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory, t rade policy, and estimation of trade equations. Empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in U.S. import prices. Namely, the aggregate pass-through equation (of exchange rates to import prices) shifted in the 1980s. The shift's nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis. Copyright 1988 by American Economic Association.