Welfare Dependence, Recidivism, and the Future for Recipients of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)
分析爱荷华州福利改革初期（1993-96年）的福利参与动态，发现人力资本、子女抚养费、婚姻状况等因素显著影响受助者脱离福利并减少再犯率。
This paper examines welfare participation dynamics during 1993ñ96, the initial years of Iowaís welfare reform, a reform remarkably similar to the stateís current Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. Analyses of the Family Investment Program (FIP) participation over the programís first two years show that, on average, FIP recipients stayed fewer months in the second year compared with the first, although a relatively large share of participants (36 percent) stayed on for the full two years. A fixed effects model and a semiparametric duration model are used to examine welfare dependence and recidivism. Iowaís experience suggests that human capital, child support, marital status, and the presence of children will be significant factors in reducing time on TANF and recidivism. Child support and wage income are crucial in determining the degrees of success for exiting and staying off, especially during the early months of the exit.