Beyond bipolar: A three‐dimensional assessment of monetary frameworks
本文构建新数据集，联合分析汇率制度、央行独立性和通胀目标制对通胀及汇率行为的影响，发现三者各自独立发挥作用，且央行自主性、通胀目标与自由浮动的组合可能优于中间汇率制度。
Abstract A great deal of attention has been focused recently on the impact of exchange rate regimes, just as previous empirical research examined central bank autonomy and announced targets for domestic monetary policy. To date, however, these three elements of monetary frameworks have been assessed in isolation from one another, and all have been viewed in terms of a unidimensional spectrum of fixity versus flexibility. Using a newly constructed dataset, this paper jointly analyses and compares all three elements' effects on inflation and exchange rate behaviour. The results show that each of the three elements has independent and distinct effects on nominal outcomes. Key findings include: (1) although hard pegs do tend to reduce inflation and attenuate exchange rate fluctuations within some range, they are clearly characterized by large devaluations; (2) central bank autonomy is associated with a more stable exchange rate and lower inflation; and (3) explicit inflation targeting reduces both inflation and its persistence, consistent with the view that inflation targeting increases flexibility through transparency. These results raise the possibility that a combination of central bank autonomy, inflation targeting, and a free float might offer the same benefits as any intermediate exchange rate regime on its own, without the proclivity to occasional large depreciations. Copyright © 2001 Institute for International Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York.