The Baby Boom and Baby Bust
提出一个假说：长期生育率下降源于实际工资上升提高了养育孩子的机会成本，而20世纪中叶家庭部门的技术进步降低了养育成本，从而解释了婴儿潮。模型试图定量解释婴儿潮与随后的生育率下降。
What caused the baby boom? And can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years? The hypothesis is that: (a) The secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children; (b) The baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century. This lowered the cost of having children. A model is developed in an attempt to account, quantitatively, for both the baby boom and bust.