分析师预测捆绑

Analyst Forecast Bundling

Management Science · 2020
被引 33
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究发现分析师越来越多地在同一天发布多家公司的盈利预测(捆绑),这主要是为了节省成本、聚焦主题研究,但捆绑预测的准确性、新颖性和信息含量都较低,不过分析师会为机构客户提供增值服务。

Abstract

Changing economic conditions over the past two decades have created incentives for sell-side analysts to both provide their institutional clients tiered services and to streamline their written research process. One manifestation of these changes is an increased likelihood of analysts’ issuing earnings forecasts for multiple firms on the same day. We identify this bundling property and show that bundling has increased steadily over time. We provide field evidence that the practice is a cost-saving measure, a natural by-product of analysts focusing on thematic research, and a reflection of forecast updating that occurs in advance of important events. Our empirical analyses show that bundled forecasts are less accurate, less bold, and less informative to investors than nonbundled forecasts. We also find that analysts who produce bundled forecasts provide valuable specialized services to their institutional clients. Our findings ultimately demonstrate that forecast bundling has important implications for the properties of analysts’ forecasts. This paper was accepted by Shiva Rajgopal, accounting.

分析师预测捆绑预测准确性预测大胆性机构客户服务