The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence
解释1970年代初股市大跌并持续低迷至1980年代初的原因，认为信息技术到来而当时上市公司未准备好应用，投资者预期新公司将在1980年代中期后引入新技术，导致旧资本价值立即下跌。
Why did the stock market decline so much in the early 1970's and remain low until the early 1980's? We argue that it was because information technology arrived on the scene and the stock-market incumbents of the day were not ready to implement it. Instead, new firms would bring in the new technology after the mid-1980's. Investors foresaw this in the early 1970's and stock prices fell right away. In our model, new capital destroys old capital, but with a lag. The prospect of this causes the value of the old capital to fall right away.