Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude
比较两种风险态度测量方法：基于彩票的期望效用法和基于李克特量表的心理测量法，发现彩票法更能预测实际市场行为，而心理量表与自我报告指标更一致。
Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are from computer-assisted interviews of 346 Dutch owner-managers of hog farms, who made decisions about their own businesses. While the measures demonstrate some degree of convergent validity, those measures based on lotteries were better predictors of actual market behavior. In contrast the psychometric scale showed more agreement to selfreported measures of innovativeness, market orientation, and the intention to reduce risk. In light of the higher predictive validity of lottery-based measurements, werecommend elicitation methods based on the expected utility paradigm.