Core Measures of Inflation as Predictors of Total Inflation
研究发现，核心通胀指标并不总是总通胀的最佳预测因子，其预测表现取决于通胀衡量方式和预测时间跨度，并首次提供了预测误差差异的统计显著性度量。
Policymakers tend to focus on core inflation measures because they are thought to be better predictors of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. We find little support for this assumption. While some measures of core inflation are less volatile than total inflation, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. The relative forecasting performance of models using core inflation and those using only total inflation depends on the inflation measure and time horizon of the forecast. Unlike previous studies, we provide a measure of the statistical significance of the difference in forecast errors.