Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings
利用健康与退休研究样本中近职业生涯的社会保障收入记录，发现当期收入与终生收入的关系偏离经典测量误差模型，且这种偏离随生命周期系统变化，有助于改进使用当期收入代理终生收入的研究中的偏差校正。
Researchers in a variety of important economic literatures have assumed that current income variables as proxies for lifetime income variables follow the textbook errors-in-variables model. In our analysis of Social Security records containing nearly career-long earnings histories for the Health and Retirement Study sample, we find that the relationship between current and lifetime earnings departs substantially from the textbook model in ways that vary systematically over the life cycle. Our results can enable more appropriate analysis of, and correction for, errors-in-variables bias in any research that uses current earnings to proxy for lifetime earnings.