Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test
检验了欧元区政府债券市场比独立国家更脆弱、更易受自我实现的流动性危机影响的假设，发现2010-11年外围国家利差飙升部分与债务比率脱节，与负面市场情绪相关。
We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the peripheral Eurozone countries during 2010–11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space variables, and was associated with negative self-fulfilling market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. We argue that this can drive member countries of the Eurozone into bad equilibria. We also find evidence that after years of neglecting high government debt, investors became increasingly worried about this in the Eurozone, and reacted by raising the spreads. No such worries developed in stand-alone countries despite the fact that debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space variables were equally high and increasing in these countries.